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The global market for low-voltage drives will shrink by 5.6% this year, according to a revised forecast issued by the market analyst, IMS Research. Previously, the company had been predicting that the market would expand by 3.6% during 2009 to reach a value of $10.14bn but, based on the latest information from drives suppliers, it is now forecasting that global revenues will fall from $9.79bn last year to $9.44bn in 2009.

IMS expects the market to start recovering in 2010, when it will return to growth with a 6% expansion to reach a value of $9.8bn. But it won’t exceed the $10bn mark until 2011, when IMS expects it to grow by a further 8.1%. In 2012, the market will expand yet again, by 9.5%, to reach a value of $11.6bn. Under IMS’ original forecasts, the global market for LV drives would have been worth at least $1bn more ($12.73bn) by 2012.

There are no signs that the global drives market will return, in the short term, to the boom it experienced in 2007, when it grew by more than 20% – or even in 2008, when it expanded by 10.6%.

IMS says that it considered several factors in reaching its revised forecast. One was that the machinery market performed worse than expected during the first quarter of 2009. In addition, during the last quarter of 2008, GDP declined by 1% in the US, 1.5% in the EU and 3.3% in Japan.

A slightly rosier picture emerges from China, where IMS predicts that the LV drives market will grow by 5% during 2009, helped by a government stimulus package that is targeting end-users.

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